Australia's post-American future: Hugh White on the end of the rules-based order

Emeritus Professor Hugh White of the Coral Bell School's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre has launched his new book, Hard New World: Australia's Post-American Future, an expanded edition of his bestselling Quarterly Essay of the same title, published by Black Inc. on 24 August 2026.

Hugh White discussed the book with Federal MP Allegra Spender in a wide-ranging conversation on Australia's place in a shifting global order. The full conversation is available to watch here.

In the book, Hugh argues that Australia can no longer rely on the assumption that America will guarantee its security or uphold a rules-based international order. He points to Australia's long-standing position as one of America's most geographically and strategically marginal allies, and argues that a fear of abandonment has shaped Australian foreign policy since before Federation. That fear, he writes, was easy to set aside while America was strong and Asian powers were comparatively weak. With China's influence growing and America's regional commitment increasingly uncertain under Donald Trump, Hugh contends that Australia's leaders can no longer avoid the question of what comes next.

Hugh White draws a contrast with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's January 2026 address to the World Economic Forum in Davos, in which Carney described the rules-based order as a "pleasant fiction" and warned against nations that continue to comply with it in the hope that compliance will buy safety. Hugh notes that Canada, unlike Australia, can never truly fear abandonment by the United States, given its direct border and the inseparability of Canadian and American security. Australia, he argues, holds no such guarantee.

Read an extract from Hard New World: Australia's Post-American Future on ANU Reporter here. Hard New World: Australia's Post-American Future can be purchased via Black Inct. here. 

Hugh White AO is Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies within the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at the Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs, ANU College of Asia and the Pacific, and former Head of the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre.